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USDA Crop Production - Monthly
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Cr Pr 2-2 (1-08)
Crop
Production
National Agricultural Statistics Service
USDA
Washington, D.C.
Released January 11, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of
Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202)
720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
All Orange Production Up 2 Percent From December
The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2007-08 season is 10.0 million
tons, up 2 percent from the December 1 forecast and 32 percent
higher than the 2006-07 final utilization of 7.59 million tons.
Florida's all orange forecast, at 168 million boxes (7.56 million
tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 30 percent
higher than last season's final utilization of 129 million boxes.
Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at
81.0 million boxes (3.65 million tons), unchanged from December 1
but 23 percent above last season. Florida's Valencia forecast, at
87.0 million boxes (3.92 million tons), remains the same as the
December 1 forecast but is 37 percent higher than 2006-07. Florida
citrus regions experienced relatively warm, dry weather, so
frequent irrigation was needed to keep the trees and fruit in good
condition.
The all orange forecast in California, at 63.0 million boxes
(2.36 million tons), is 9 percent higher than October's forecast
and 40 percent above last season. The navel forecast is
48.0 million boxes (1.80 million tons), 12 percent above the
October forecast and 41 percent higher than 2006-07's final
utilization. California's Valencia orange forecast is 15.0 million
boxes (563,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but
36 percent above last season. The Texas all orange forecast is
1.79 million boxes (76,000 tons), down 1 percent from October and
10 percent lower than last season. The early and midseason
forecast is 1.40 million boxes (60,000 tons), down 3 percent from
October and 13 percent less than 2006-07. Texas Valencia oranges
are forecast at 385,000 boxes (16,000 tons), 10 percent higher than
the December forecast and 1 percent above last season. The Arizona
all orange forecast is 350,000 boxes (13,000 tons), 17 percent
above both October and the previous season. Navel utilization in
Arizona is forecast at 250,000 boxes (9,000 tons), 25 percent
higher than both the October forecast and last season. Valencia
oranges in Arizona are forecast at 100,000 boxes (4,000 tons),
unchanged from both October and last season.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for
the 2007-08 season remains at 1.60 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees
Brix, 3 percent lower than last season's final yield of
1.65 gallons per box. The early-mid portion is projected at
1.53 gallons per box, 2 percent below last season's final of
1.56 gallons. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.68 gallons
per box, 5 percent lower than last season's final of 1.77 gallons
per box. All projections of yield assume the processing
relationships this season will be similar to those of the past
several seasons.
This report was approved on January 11, 2008.
Acting Secretary of
Agriculture
Floyd D. Gaibler
Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Carol C. House
Contents
Page
Grains & Hay
Hay Stocks. . . . . . . . . . 6
Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts
Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Citrus Fruits
Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . 5
Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . 5
Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . 5
Temples . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops
Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . . 4
Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .15
Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . 7
Information Contacts . . . . . .19
Reliability of Production Data in this Report18
Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . .13
Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .14
Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production
by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2006-2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area : :
Seasonal :---------------------------: Yield : Production
Group : Planted : Harvested : :
and :-------------------------------------------------------------------
State : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 Acres ------ --- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt -----
:
Winter :
CA : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 215 250 3,120 2,473 2,750
FL 1/ : 1,375
:
Total : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 215 250 4,495 2,473 2,750
:
Spring 2/ :
AZ : 4.0 4.0 280 1,170 1,120
CA : 15.5 15.5 395 6,044 6,123
FL 1/ : 27.8 27.2 287 6,441 7,807
Hastings: 16.5 16.2 285 4,731 4,617
Other FL: 11.3 11.0 290 1,710 3,190
NC : 16.0 14.5 186 3,255 2,700
TX : 9.7 9.2 320 2,856 2,944
:
Total : 73.0 70.4 294 19,766 20,694
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Winter potatoes combined with spring potatoes beginning in 2007.
2/ 2007 revised.
Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area : Fresh Production 1/
:-------------------------------------------------------------------
Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : :
:---------------------------------------------: 2006 : 2007
: 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds
:
Oct : 2,140 2,105 1,320 1,535 2,185 3,340
Nov : 2,140 2,100 1,315 1,365 2,605 3,075
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Utilized fresh production.
Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
2005-06, 2006-07 and Forecasted January 1, 2008 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Utilized Production : Utilized Production
: Boxes : Ton Equivalent
Crop and State :-----------------------------------------------------------
: 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------
Oranges :
Early Mid & :
Navel 3/ :
AZ : 250 200 250 9 8 9
CA : 47,000 34,000 48,000 1,763 1,275 1,800
FL 4/ : 75,000 65,600 81,000 3,375 2,952 3,645
TX : 1,400 1,600 1,400 60 68 60
US : 123,650 101,400 130,650 5,207 4,303 5,514
Valencia :
AZ : 200 100 100 8 4 4
CA : 14,000 11,000 15,000 525 413 563
FL : 72,700 63,400 87,000 3,272 2,853 3,915
TX : 200 380 385 9 16 16
US : 87,100 74,880 102,485 3,814 3,286 4,498
All :
AZ : 450 300 350 17 12 13
CA : 61,000 45,000 63,000 2,288 1,688 2,363
FL : 147,700 129,000 168,000 6,647 5,805 7,560
TX : 1,600 1,980 1,785 69 84 76
US : 210,750 176,280 233,135 9,021 7,589 10,012
Temples 4/ :
FL : 700 32
Grapefruit :
White :
FL : 6,500 9,300 8,000 276 395 340
Colored :
FL : 12,800 17,900 17,000 544 761 723
All :
AZ : 100 100 150 3 3 5
CA : 6,000 4,000 5,000 201 134 168
FL : 19,300 27,200 25,000 820 1,156 1,063
TX : 5,200 7,100 6,600 208 284 264
US : 30,600 38,400 36,750 1,232 1,577 1,500
Tangerines :
AZ 5/ : 550 300 400 21 11 15
CA 5/ : 3,600 2,900 5,100 135 109 191
FL : 5,500 4,600 4,800 261 219 228
US : 9,650 7,800 10,300 417 339 434
Lemons :
AZ : 3,800 2,500 1,500 144 95 57
CA : 22,000 16,000 17,000 836 608 646
US : 25,800 18,500 18,500 980 703 703
Tangelos :
FL : 1,400 1,250 1,300 63 56 59
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
the completion of harvest the following year.
2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ &
CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ &
CA-75, FL-95.
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel)
and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in
TX.
4/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with
2006-07 season.
5/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States,
December 1 and May 1, 2005-2007
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Dec 1 : May 1
State :---------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2005 : 2006 1/ : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Tons
:
AL : 1,575 1,065 1,318 264 144
AZ : 350 350 260 40 35
AR : 2,000 2,140 2,700 210 160
CA : 1,840 1,785 1,890 192 202
CO : 2,365 2,130 2,400 460 290
CT : 55 65 67 9 12
DE : 18 18 8 4 4
FL : 380 380 492 60 21
GA : 1,350 878 1,013 198 82
ID : 2,260 2,575 2,400 375 320
IL : 1,260 1,690 1,100 324 325
IN : 1,498 1,475 973 207 198
IA : 4,200 3,900 3,500 1,000 684
KS : 5,000 4,390 5,465 800 600
KY : 4,390 4,550 3,312 635 600
LA : 596 690 820 81 57
ME : 138 140 160 25 27
MD : 390 452 240 74 60
MA : 76 90 76 17 13
MI : 1,852 2,385 1,700 395 350
MN : 4,117 4,200 3,140 1,150 740
MS : 1,567 1,186 1,459 210 78
MO : 6,315 5,415 6,662 873 625
MT : 5,440 4,105 4,500 1,463 760
NE : 4,585 3,680 4,280 1,070 863
NV : 788 879 767 209 202
NH : 53 60 45 8 12
NJ : 112 97 68 8 10
NM : 545 470 580 133 105
NY : 1,650 1,451 1,674 285 326
NC : 1,245 1,280 682 282 120
ND : 5,580 4,375 4,990 1,806 609
OH : 2,360 2,155 1,653 363 356
OK : 3,900 3,275 6,100 550 400
OR : 1,790 1,840 1,700 210 180
PA : 1,700 3,485 1,750 410 520
RI : 10 8 6 1 3
SC : 565 468 350 120 65
SD : 7,935 5,120 7,816 2,140 1,150
TN : 3,625 3,103 1,930 742 425
TX : 8,000 7,550 13,400 896 885
UT : 1,370 1,410 1,130 266 185
VT : 257 273 233 57 38
VA : 2,585 2,190 1,705 730 268
WA : 1,475 1,339 1,385 250 240
WV : 984 816 720 214 136
WI : 3,183 3,577 3,467 1,135 1,308
WY : 1,876 1,600 1,900 394 220
:
US : 105,205 96,555 103,986 21,345 15,013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Revised.
Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008
(Domestic Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area Planted : Area Harvested
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Acres
:
Grains & Hay :
Barley : 4,020.0 3,508.0
Corn for Grain 2/ : 93,600.0 86,542.0
Corn for Silage : 6,071.0
Hay, All : 61,625.0
Alfalfa : 21,670.0
All Other : 39,955.0
Oats : 3,760.0 1,505.0
Proso Millet : 570.0 515.0
Rice : 2,761.0 2,748.0
Rye : 1,376.0 289.0
Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 7,718.0 6,805.0
Sorghum for Silage : 399.0
Wheat, All : 60,433.0 51,011.0
Winter : 44,987.0 46,610.0 35,952.0
Durum : 2,149.0 2,112.0
Other Spring : 13,297.0 12,947.0
:
Oilseeds :
Canola : 1,183.0 1,163.0
Cottonseed 3/ :
Flaxseed : 354.0 349.0
Mustard Seed : 56.0 52.8
Peanuts : 1,230.0 1,195.0
Rapeseed : 1.5 1.0
Safflower : 180.0 172.0
Soybeans for Beans : 63,631.0 62,820.0
Sunflower : 2,068.0 2,009.5
:
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops :
Cotton, All : 10,830.3 10,492.2
Upland : 10,538.0 10,204.0
Amer-Pima : 292.3 288.2
Sugarbeets : 1,269.8 1,246.9
Sugarcane : 883.5
Tobacco : 356.0
:
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils :
Austrian Winter Peas : 29.0 11.0
Dry Edible Beans : 1,526.9 1,478.7
Dry Edible Peas : 847.5 811.3
Lentils : 303.0 295.0
Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :
:
Potatoes & Misc. :
Coffee (HI) : 6.4
Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1
Hops : 30.9
Peppermint Oil : 73.3
Potatoes, All : 1,148.8 1,129.0
Winter : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0
Spring : 73.0 70.4
Summer : 53.7 50.4
Fall : 1,010.6 996.7
Spearmint Oil : 19.6
Sweet Potatoes : 100.6 97.5
Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop
year.
2/ Area planted for all purposes.
3/ Acreage is not estimated.
4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008
(Domestic Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : Yield : Production
Crop :Units:-------------------------------------------
: : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : ------ 1,000 -----
: :
Grains & Hay : :
Barley :Bu : 60.4 211,825
Corn for Grain :" : 151.1 13,073,893
Corn for Silage :Tons : 17.5 106,328
Hay, All :" : 2.44 150,304
Alfalfa :" : 3.35 72,575
All Other :" : 1.95 77,729
Oats :Bu : 60.9 91,599
Proso Millet :" : 32.3 16,615
Rice 2/ :Cwt : 7,185 197,456
Rye :Bu : 27.4 7,914
Sorghum for Grain :" : 74.2 504,993
Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 15.6 6,206
Wheat, All :Bu : 40.5 2,066,722
Winter :" : 42.2 1,515,989
Durum :" : 33.9 71,686
Other Spring :" : 37.0 479,047
: :
Oilseeds : :
Canola :Lbs : 1,250 1,453,830
Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 6,596.0
Flaxseed :Bu : 16.9 5,904
Mustard Seed :Lbs : 603 31,826
Peanuts :" : 3,130 3,740,650
Rapeseed :" : 1,300 1,300
Safflower :" : 1,215 208,995
Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 41.2 2,585,207
Sunflower :Lbs : 1,437 2,888,555
: :
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : :
Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 871 19,033.0
Upland 2/ :" : 857 18,208.0
Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,374 825.0
Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.6 31,912
Sugarcane :" : 34.9 30,834
Tobacco :Lbs : 2,187 778,624
: :
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : :
Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,155 127
Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,716 25,371
Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,960 15,903
Lentils 2/ :" : 1,155 3,408
Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 541
: :
Potatoes & Misc. : :
Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,170 7,500
Ginger Root (HI) :" : 35,000 2,800
Hops :" : 1,949 60,253.1
Peppermint Oil :" : 93 6,794
Potatoes, All :Cwt : 398 449,156
Winter :" : 215 250 2,473 2,750
Spring :" : 294 20,694
Summer :" : 335 16,907
Fall :" : 410 409,082
Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 121 2,379
Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 18,452
Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop
year.
2/ Yield in pounds.
3/ Yield is not estimated.
Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008
(Domestic Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : Production
Crop : Units :-----------------------------------------
: : 2006 : 2007 : 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : 1,000
: :
Citrus 2/ : :
Grapefruit :Tons : 1,232 1,577 1,500
Lemons :" : 980 703 703
Oranges :" : 9,021 7,589 10,012
Tangelos (FL) :" : 63 56 59
Tangerines :" : 417 339 434
Temples (FL) 3/ :" : 32
: :
Noncitrus : :
Apples :1,000 Lbs: 9,931.7 9,254.7
Apricots :Tons : 44.5 86.6
Bananas (HI) :Lbs : 20,000.0
Grapes :Tons : 6,417.2 6,990.5
Olives (CA) :" : 23.5 110.0
Papayas (HI) :Lbs : 28,700.0
Peaches :Tons : 1,010.1 1,026.9
Pears :" : 842.0 878.1
Prunes, Dried (CA) :" : 180.0 90.0
Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) :" : 21.5 13.7
: :
Nuts & Misc. : :
Almonds (CA) (shelled) :Lbs : 1,115,000 1,330,000
Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :Tons : 43.0 33.0
Pecans (in-shell) :Lbs : 206,300 333,605
Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) :Tons : 346.0 320.0
Maple Syrup :Gals : 1,449 1,258
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop
year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season.
2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08.
3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season.
Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008
(Metric Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area Planted : Area Harvested
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Hectares
:
Grains & Hay :
Barley : 1,626,850 1,419,650
Corn for Grain 2/ :37,878,980 35,022,680
Corn for Silage : 2,456,870
Hay, All 3/ : 24,939,020
Alfalfa : 8,769,630
All Other : 16,169,390
Oats : 1,521,630 609,060
Proso Millet : 230,670 208,420
Rice : 1,117,350 1,112,090
Rye : 556,850 116,960
Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,123,400 2,753,920
Sorghum for Silage : 161,470
Wheat, All 3/ :24,456,630 20,643,640
Winter :18,205,790 18,862,600 14,549,410
Durum : 869,680 854,710
Other Spring : 5,381,160 5,239,520
:
Oilseeds :
Canola : 478,750 470,650
Cottonseed 4/ :
Flaxseed : 143,260 141,240
Mustard Seed : 22,660 21,370
Peanuts : 497,770 483,600
Rapeseed : 610 400
Safflower : 72,840 69,610
Soybeans for Beans :25,750,830 25,422,630
Sunflower : 836,900 813,220
:
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops :
Cotton, All 3/ : 4,382,910 4,246,090
Upland : 4,264,620 4,129,460
Amer-Pima : 118,290 116,630
Sugarbeets : 513,880 504,610
Sugarcane : 357,540
Tobacco : 144,070
:
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils :
Austrian Winter Peas : 11,740 4,450
Dry Edible Beans : 617,920 598,420
Dry Edible Peas : 342,970 328,320
Lentils : 122,620 119,380
Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ :
:
Potatoes & Misc. :
Coffee (HI) : 2,590
Ginger Root (HI) : 30
Hops : 12,510
Peppermint Oil : 29,660
Potatoes, All 3/ : 464,910 456,900
Winter : 4,650 4,450 4,650 4,450
Spring : 29,540 28,490
Summer : 21,730 20,400
Fall : 408,980 403,350
Spearmint Oil : 7,930
Sweet Potatoes : 40,710 39,460
Taro (HI) 5/ : 150
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop
year.
2/ Area planted for all purposes.
3/ Total may not add due to rounding.
4/ Acreage is not estimated.
5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008
(Metric Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield : Production
Crop :-----------------------------------------------
: 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Metric Tons
:
Grains & Hay :
Barley : 3.25 4,611,940
Corn for Grain : 9.48 332,092,180
Corn for Silage : 39.26 96,459,140
Hay, All 2/ : 5.47 136,353,500
Alfalfa : 7.51 65,838,930
All Other : 4.36 70,514,560
Oats : 2.18 1,329,560
Proso Millet : 1.81 376,820
Rice : 8.05 8,956,450
Rye : 1.72 201,020
Sorghum for Grain : 4.66 12,827,410
Sorghum for Silage : 34.87 5,629,990
Wheat, All 2/ : 2.72 56,246,960
Winter : 2.84 41,258,460
Durum : 2.28 1,950,970
Other Spring : 2.49 13,037,520
:
Oilseeds :
Canola : 1.40 659,450
Cottonseed 3/ : 5,983,790
Flaxseed : 1.06 149,970
Mustard Seed : 0.68 14,440
Peanuts : 3.51 1,696,730
Rapeseed : 1.46 590
Safflower : 1.36 94,800
Soybeans for Beans : 2.77 70,357,800
Sunflower : 1.61 1,310,230
:
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops :
Cotton, All 2/ : 0.98 4,143,950
Upland : 0.96 3,964,330
Amer-Pima : 1.54 179,620
Sugarbeets : 57.37 28,950,080
Sugarcane : 78.23 27,972,130
Tobacco : 2.45 353,180
:
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils :
Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 5,760
Dry Edible Beans : 1.92 1,150,810
Dry Edible Peas : 2.20 721,350
Lentils : 1.29 154,580
Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 24,540
:
Potatoes & Misc. :
Coffee (HI) : 1.31 3,400
Ginger Root (HI) : 39.23 1,270
Hops : 2.18 27,330
Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,080
Potatoes, All 2/ : 44.59 20,373,370
Winter : 24.10 28.02 112,170 124,740
Spring : 32.95 938,660
Summer : 37.60 766,890
Fall : 46.00 18,555,650
Spearmint Oil : 0.14 1,080
Sweet Potatoes : 21.21 836,970
Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,810
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop
year.
2/ Production may not add due to rounding.
3/ Yield is not estimated.
Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008
(Metric Units) 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :--------------------------------------------------
: 2006 : 2007 : 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Metric tons
:
Citrus 2/ :
Grapefruit : 1,117,650 1,430,630 1,360,780
Lemons : 889,040 637,750 637,750
Oranges : 8,183,710 6,884,620 9,082,730
Tangelos (FL) : 57,150 50,800 53,520
Tangerines : 378,300 307,540 393,720
Temples (FL) 3/ : 29,030
:
Noncitrus :
Apples : 4,504,940 4,197,860
Apricots : 40,350 78,530
Bananas (HI) : 9,070
Grapes : 5,821,540 6,341,630
Olives (CA) : 21,320 99,790
Papayas (HI) : 13,020
Peaches : 916,370 931,630
Pears : 763,880 796,550
Prunes, Dried (CA) : 163,290 81,650
Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,500 12,430
:
Nuts & Misc. :
Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 505,760 603,280
Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 39,010 29,940
Pecans (in-shell) : 93,580 151,320
Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 313,890 290,300
Maple Syrup : 7,240 6,290
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop
year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season.
2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08.
3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season.
December Weather Summary
For a La Ni€a winter, the jet stream took an uncharacteristic dip
into the Southwest, helping to generate a broad area of stormy
weather from the Four Corners States into the Midwest and
Northeast. Only a few areas namely the northern Plains and the
southern half of Texas completely missed out on the stormy regime.
The jet stream's prevailing position, aligned from the Southwest to
the Northeast, not only helped to govern the primary storm track
but also dictated the separation between warm air in the Southeast
and very cold conditions across the central Plains and much of the
West. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 6 degrees F above
normal in several Southeastern locations, but ranged from 6 to 10
degrees F below normal across parts of the Intermountain West.
Heavy rain and melting snow triggered major flooding in the Pacific
Northwest early in the month. Storminess shifted southward
thereafter, providing much-needed snowfall in the Sierra Nevada,
the Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest. Precipitation was
particularly heavy from the Four Corners region into southern
Wyoming, improving water-supply prospects in many Western river
basins.
Farther east, livestock on the central and southern Plains endured
a difficult month due to snow, ice, and mud. Heavy precipitation
fell as far north as Nebraska, but mostly dry weather prevailed on
the northern High Plains. Despite the wintry weather and variety
of conditions, wheat continued to overwinter well, except for the
portion of the crop (mainly on the central and southern High
Plains) that was poorly established prior to dormancy.
Meanwhile, much of the Midwest and Northeast also contended with
periods of cold weather and frequent snow and ice accumulations,
stressing livestock but maintaining abundant soil moisture
reserves.
Elsewhere, the South experienced December warmth, although dry
weather in southern Texas contrasted with heavy showers and drought
relief in the southern Atlantic States. Despite the late-year
rain, lingering Southeastern drought effects included low lake
levels and the slow recovery of pastures.
December Agricultural Summary
Extremely heavy December precipitation accumulations occurred along
the Pacific Coast. Up to 16 inches were evident in northeastern
California, as well as in eastern Oregon and Washington. Heavy
precipitation also fell in the northern Rocky Mountains with more
scattered moderate accumulations evident farther south along the
Rocky Mountains. Farther east on the Great Plains, only light
scattered precipitation fell in northern and southern parts of the
region. Four inches or more of rain fell from East Texas,
northeastward to the Great Lakes and eastward to the Atlantic Coast
with some areas in the Southeast and Ohio Valley receiving as much
as 8 inches.
Temperatures in the West averaged below normal, except in parts of
the Pacific Northwest and extreme northern Rocky Mountains, where
temperatures ranged from near-normal to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above
normal. Throughout the Great Plains, temperatures were below
normal, except in the western Dakotas, in most of Texas, and in the
southeast corner of New Mexico. Temperatures were above normal
from central Texas eastward to the Southeast, and northward through
the Delta, eastern Corn Belt, and Mid-Atlantic Coast States.
Near-normal temperatures prevailed over the Great Lakes and New
England.
In the Pacific Northwest, most agricultural activity involved
greenery and Christmas tree sales for the holidays. In California,
strawberries were growing well in Fresno County, and planting of
blueberry bushes and stone fruit were ongoing. California
sugarbeets were developing at various stages while vegetable
harvest and chemical applications continued. Citrus growers were
treating fungus, insects, and weeds and some were tree topping. In
the northern Rocky Mountains, snow cover was mostly adequate. On
the northern Great Plains, snow cover was reported somewhat
inadequate in the Dakotas possibly threatening winter wheat
condition, while central Great Plains winter wheat was in mostly
good and excellent condition. Along the southern Great Plains,
winter wheat was rated 32 percent good and excellent in Oklahoma.
In Texas, cotton harvest continued during the month and was
complete in the Panhandle, Edwards Plateau, and Trans-Pecos
regions. Texas grain sorghum harvest was complete in the northern
High Plains and citrus, pecan, and vegetable harvest continued.
In the Corn Belt, producers were hauling corn and soybeans to
market and winter wheat was in mostly good to excellent condition.
Where temperatures were dropping to threatening levels, adequate
snow cover remained, keeping the wheat protected. Farmers were
spreading fertilizer and manure and making fence repairs as weather
permitted.
In the Southeast, Florida sugarcane and cotton harvest continued
and peanut harvest was complete early in the month. Vegetable
planting, harvest, and irrigation continued with some rain
interruptions to field activities around mid-month. Fruit and
vegetable marketing and citrus harvest and packing was evident.
Georgia cotton harvest and wheat planting was ongoing while rains
helped wheat stands emerge and spurred growth.
Winter Potatoes: California's winter potato production for 2008 is
forecast at 2.75 million cwt, up 11 percent from a year ago but
12 percent below 2006. Florida's winter potato estimates were
combined with their spring potato estimates in 2007, which leaves
California as the only winter potato estimating State. Harvested
area in California is forecast at 11,000 acres, down 4 percent from
2007, and average yield is expected to be 250 cwt per acre, 35 cwt
above last year. Growers reported that crop quality was very good
and yields had improved from last year.
Spring Potatoes: Production for 2007 is estimated at 20.7 million
cwt, virtually unchanged from the May forecast but 5 percent above
2006. Harvested area totaled 70,400 acres, unchanged from the
previous forecast but up 4 percent from a year ago. The average
yield of 294 cwt per acre is the same as the May forecast but 1 cwt
above 2006.
Florida production is estimated at 7.81 million cwt, up 1 percent
from the May 1 forecast and 21 percent above the 2006 production.
Florida's winter potatoes were combined with spring potatoes in
2007. In California, production increased 1 percent from last year
due to a 1 percent increase in harvested acres. Cold weather early
in the season delayed the crop and some growers did not begin to
harvest until June. Production in Texas increased 3 percent from
2006 with a record high yield of 320 cwt per acre. The crop
benefitted from good growing conditions and high levels of
moisture. Growers in North Carolina produced 17 percent fewer
spring potatoes than in the previous year. Dry conditions reduced
yield 24 cwt per acre from 2006. Production in Arizona declined
4 percent from last year due to a 20 cwt per acre drop in average
yield.
Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at
3.08 million pounds for November 2007, down 8 percent from October
but 18 percent higher than the comparable month a year ago. Total
area in crop for November is estimated at 2,100 acres, down
slightly from last month and 2 percent less than November 2006.
Harvested area totaled 1,365 acres, 11 percent lower than October
2007 but up 4 percent from the same month the previous year.
November saw sunny skies mixed with periods of heavy rain and wind.
Orchards made fair to good progress during the month and harvest
was active. Spraying was stepped up to control disease outbreaks
under wet conditions.
Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2007-08 U.S. grapefruit crop is
1.50 million tons, up slightly from the December 1 forecast but
5 percent lower than the previous season. Florida's grapefruit
production is forecast at 25.0 million boxes (1.06 million tons),
unchanged from the December forecast but 8 percent below last
season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 8.00 million
boxes (340,000 tons), unchanged from December's forecast but
14 percent below last season's final utilization. Average fruit
size is projected to be the smallest on record dating back to the
1968-69 season. The Florida colored grapefruit forecast, at
17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), is unchanged from the December
forecast but 5 percent below the 2006-07 final utilization. The
principal grapefruit growing regions experienced dry weather and
warm temperatures most of the season. A short cold snap the second
week of December helped fruit and trees acclimate for winter.
The Texas grapefruit production forecast is 6.60 million boxes
(264,000 tons), down 3 percent from October's forecast and
7 percent lower than last season. Grapefruit production in
California is forecast at 5.00 million boxes (168,000 tons), up
11 percent from the October forecast and 25 percent above last
season. Pummelo and Oroblanco grapefruit varieties were good
quality. Arizona grapefruit production is forecast at
150,000 boxes (5,000 tons), down 25 percent from the previous
forecast but up 50 percent from last season.
Lemons: The forecast for the 2007-08 U.S. lemon crop is
703,000 tons, up 3 percent from the October 1 forecast but
unchanged from 2006-07. California's forecast is 17.0 million
boxes (646,000 tons), 3 percent above the previous forecast and
6 percent higher than last season. Light picking is ongoing across
all growing areas and will increase as the Central Valley gains
momentum. Demand has exceeded supply and volumes are expected to
remain below average. The forecast for Arizona is 1.50 million
boxes, unchanged from the previous forecast but 40 percent lower
than last season. The freeze last January resulted in lower fruit
set and smaller sized fruit.
Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.30 million boxes
(59,000 tons), unchanged from the December 1 forecast but 4 percent
above the 2006-07 final utilized production. Harvest of Orlando
variety earlier in the season was primarily for fresh market with a
transition to processing.
Tangerines: The U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 434,000 tons,
up 4 percent from the December 1 forecast and 28 percent higher
than the final utilization in 2006-07. Florida's tangerine crop is
forecast at 4.80 million boxes (228,000 tons), unchanged from
December's forecast but 4 percent higher than the
2006-07 utilization of 4.60 million boxes. Harvest of Fallglo and
Sunburst varieties was nearly complete. The later maturing Honey
tangerine experienced a significant size increase which was offset
by higher droppage, keeping the forecast unchanged. California's
forecast, at 5.10 million boxes, is 9 percent above October's
forecast and 76 percent higher than last season. Harvest has been
progressing well and the outlook is good for California mandarins.
Quality has been good to excellent. Satsuma and Fairchild
varieties were still being harvested throughout the State.
Clementine harvest was almost complete and Minneola tangelo harvest
was just beginning. Arizona's forecast, at 400,000 boxes
(15,000 tons), is unchanged from October but 33 percent above last
season. Some scar was evident.
Florida Citrus: Temperatures were warm in citrus producing areas
throughout December. Some temperature variations were recorded
during the second week as colder weather made its way further
south. Temperatures were in the mid 80s with high humidity before
dropping to the mid 30s and low 40s in all areas. Northern areas
recorded the lowest temperatures. Rainfall ranged from less than
one-half inch in the central and southern citrus regions to over
two and one-half inches on the east coast. Citrus trees were
reported to be in good to excellent condition. All major
packinghouses were open during December and ran at full capacity.
Packing for fundraising programs was in full swing the first half
of the month. Harvested varieties included Fallglo and Sunburst
tangerines, early, Ambersweet, and Navel oranges, grapefruit, and
some tangelos. All processing plants were open and running fruit.
The plants were accepting field run or direct to processor fruit
and packinghouse eliminations. Fruit sizes were reported on the
small side for all varieties, but fruit sets were higher than
average. Grove maintenance included mowing, spraying, fertilizing,
and young tree care.
Arizona Citrus: Citrus groves were reported to be in good
condition with fruit quality and size being relatively good. The
freeze of January 2007 mainly impacted the lemon crop for the
upcoming season. Thrips, scar, and rough texture were evident in a
few areas.
Texas Citrus: Grapefruit harvest was nearly complete and the fruit
looked good. The freeze in December had a slight impact on
production. By mid-December, citrus shipments were above average.
California Citrus: Navel harvest started slowly in early December,
then picked up as the month progressed. Navel fruit maturity and
sugar content held steady throughout the month. Mandarin, lemon,
and pummelo harvests were ongoing. Some citrus growers were
topping trees, applying foliar nutrients, and applying treatments
to control fungus, weeds, and insects.
California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape harvest was completed
and both grape and stone fruit growers were pruning, cultivating,
and treating to control weeds and insects. A frost in mid-December
accelerated leaf drop in some fruit orchards. New blueberry bushes
were planted. Strawberry harvest continued throughout the month
although rains in late December delayed harvest and affected
strawberry fruit quality in some regions. Quince, jujubes, and
persimmons were still being harvested. Olive tree pruning
continued throughout the month. Almond stockpile hulling was
slowing down by mid-December. Pruning, fertilization, and spraying
for weeds continued in nut groves.
Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled
104 million tons on December 1, 2007, up 8 percent from a year ago.
Disappearance of hay from May-December 2007 totaled 61.3 million
tons, compared with 67.1 million tons for the same period a year
ago.
Compared with December 1, 2006, hay stocks increased in most of the
Great Plains, eastern Rocky Mountain, Delta, and Southeast States.
Good growing conditions prevailed in many of these States,
resulting in higher hay production. Meanwhile, stocks decreased
compared with last year throughout the upper Mississippi Valley,
central Corn Belt, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Mid Atlantic, and
the western Rocky Mountain regions. These areas experienced drier
than normal to drought conditions resulting in lower hay
production.
Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast
Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the
January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about
75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are
determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census
conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on
administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to
mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In
September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit
droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous
components are used to develop the current forecast of production.
Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on
a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California
conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel
oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for
Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and
consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and
packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for
setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The
ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the
published January 1 forecast.
Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be
revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the
Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production
estimates are based on all data available at the end of the
marketing season, including information from marketing orders,
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded
local utilization and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the
January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a
statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The
deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final
estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The
average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year
period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements
can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors
affecting this year's forecast are not different from those
influencing recent years.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production
forecast is 5.0 percent. However, if you exclude the 5 abnormal
production years (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the
"Root Mean Square Error" is 3.5 percent. This means that chances
are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not
be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.0 percent, or
3.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10
(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
8.7 percent, or 6.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons.
Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final
estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 406,000 tons
(383,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from
106,000 tons to 1.13 million tons (106,000 tons to 638,000 tons,
excluding abnormal seasons). The January 1 forecast for oranges
has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below
5 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The
difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is
likely to understate or overstate final production.
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of
the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for
additional information.
Jeff Geuder, Chief...............................................(202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Greg Thessen, Head........................................(202) 720-2127
Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings...................(202) 720-5944
Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye.................................(202) 720-8068
Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed..................(202) 720-9526
Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice.........................(202) 720-7688
Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds......(202) 720-7369
Don Gephart - Hay, Oats, Sorghum..........................(202) 690-3234
Dawn Keen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops.............(202) 720-7621
Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section
Lance Honig, Head.........................................(202) 720-2127
Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco....(202) 720-7235
Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables,
Onions, Strawberries.....................(202) 720-2157
Faye Propsom - Citrus, Tropical Fruits....................(202) 720-5412
Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts..........(202) 720-4215
Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas,
Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches,
Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas....................(202) 720-3250
Mike Jacobsen - Apples, Apricots, Cherries,
Cranberries, Plums, Prunes................(202) 720-4288
Kim Ritchie - Hops(360) 902-1940
Lance Honig - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes.........(202) 720-2127
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Agricultural Outlook Forum 2008
Energizing Rural America
in the Global Marketplace
February 21-22, 2008
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Arlington, Virginia
Please join us for USDA's 84th annual Forum as the Secretary of
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